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MSE of Variance Estimators

Overview

We compare the MSE of different variance estimators for Normal data.

Three Estimators

Estimator Formula Bias MSE
MLE (\(n\)) \(\frac{1}{n}\sum(X_i-\bar{X})^2\) \(-\sigma^2/n\) \(\frac{2n-1}{n^2}\sigma^4\)
Bessel (\(n-1\)) \(\frac{1}{n-1}\sum(X_i-\bar{X})^2\) \(0\) \(\frac{2\sigma^4}{n-1}\)
MSE-optimal (\(n+1\)) \(\frac{1}{n+1}\sum(X_i-\bar{X})^2\) \(-\frac{2\sigma^2}{n+1}\) \(\frac{2\sigma^4}{n+1}\)

Key Insight

The MSE-optimal estimator (dividing by \(n+1\)) has the smallest MSE among estimators of the form \(c \sum(X_i - \bar{X})^2\), demonstrating the bias-variance tradeoff.